Table 4 Baseline SAVM outcomes under NVP Scenario vs. No-NVP Scenario, all cohorts including new births, US, by gender, in years 2013–2060, ages 18–99
From: Public health implications of vaping in the USA: the smoking and vaping simulation model
| Year | 2013 | 2018 | 2023 | 2060 | Cumulativea | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US males | ||||||
| No-NVP Scenariob | Smokers (%) | 21.4% | 19.2% | 17.4% | 12.2% | – |
| SADs | 280,925 | 277,980 | 274,943 | 219,947 | 12,555,272 | |
| LYLs | 3,668,313 | 3,551,197 | 3,389,252 | 2,275,317 | 141,511,570 | |
| NVP Scenarioc | Smokers (%) | 21.4% | 16.7% | 12.9% | 4.5% | – |
| NVP users (%) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 8.8% | – | |
| FS-NVP users (%) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | – | |
| SVADs | 280,925 | 271,354 | 261,620 | 171,734 | 11,264,274 | |
| LYLs | 3,668,313 | 3,406,256 | 3,098,328 | 1,243,989 | 112,777,500 | |
| Difference | SADs averted | 0 | 6,626 | 13,323 | 48,214 | 1,290,997 |
| LYLs averted | 0 | 144,941 | 290,924 | 1,031,327 | 28,734,070 | |
| US females | ||||||
| No-NVP Scenario | Smokers (%) | 15.9% | 14.1% | 12.7% | 8.7% | – |
| SADs | 110,815 | 106,875 | 106,031 | 86,296 | 5,024,120 | |
| LYLs | 1,405,272 | 1,369,936 | 1,318,238 | 822,514 | 54,081,266 | |
| NVP Scenario | Smokers (%) | 15.9% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 4.1% | – |
| NVP users (%) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 5.5% | – | |
| FS-NVP users (%) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.0% | – | |
| SVADs | 110,815 | 103,063 | 98,981 | 68,794 | 4,481,391 | |
| LYLs | 1,405,272 | 1,301,979 | 1,192,904 | 485,330 | 43,949,321 | |
| Difference | SADs averted | 0 | 3,812 | 7,050 | 17,502 | 542,729 |
| LYLs averted | 0 | 67,957 | 125,335 | 337,185 | 10,131,945 | |
| Both genders | ||||||
| Difference | SADs averted | 0 | 10,438 | 20,373 | 65,716 | 1,833,727 |
| LYLs averted | 0 | 212,898 | 416,259 | 1,368,512 | 38,866,015 | |
| SADs averted (%) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 5.3% | 21.5% | 10.4% | |
| LYLs averted (%) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 8.8% | 44.2% | 19.9% | |