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Table 3 Projected and fitted real mortality rates in 2020 (death by 100,000 people-year) and the corresponding rate ratios (real/projected)

From: A Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of mortality rates in Spain: application to the COVID-19 2020 outbreak

  A: Rate projection for 2020 B: Fitted real rates for 2020  
Autonomous Females Males Females Males Rate ratios (B/A)
Community Age group < 50 years
1. Andalusia 41 (39; 43) 77 (74; 81) 41 (39; 43) 77 (73; 81) 0.989 (0.929; 1.054)
2. Aragón 38 (35; 40) 69 (64; 73) 35 (32; 38) 64 (59; 70) 0.942 (0.851; 1.020)
3. Asturias 46 (43; 49) 88 (82; 93) 44 (40; 48) 84 (77; 92) 0.965 (0.879; 1.047)
4. Balearic Islands 37 (34; 39) 68 (64; 72) 35 (32; 38) 65 (60; 71) 0.962 (0.877; 1.042)
5. Canary Islands 43 (40; 45) 79 (75; 84) 40 (37; 43) 75 (69; 80) 0.942 (0.864; 1.014)
6. Cantabria 39 (36; 43) 70 (65; 75) 39 (35; 43) 69 (62; 76) 0.983 (0.895; 1.081)
7. Castilla y León 40 (38; 43) 70 (66; 74) 39 (37; 42) 68 (64; 73) 0.976 (0.902; 1.052)
8. Castilla-La Mancha 36 (34; 38) 66 (62; 70) 37 (34; 40) 67 (63; 73) 1.017 (0.945; 1.111)
9. Catalonia 38 (36; 40) 67 (64; 71) 38 (36; 41) 68 (65; 72) 1.015 (0.954; 1.088)
10. Valencian Comm. 41 (39; 43) 75 (71; 79) 41 (39; 44) 76 (71; 80) 1.006 (0.943; 1.080)
11. Extremadura 38 (35; 41) 73 (69; 78) 36 (32; 39) 69 (63; 75) 0.943 (0.850; 1.023)
12. Galicia 44 (41; 47) 87 (82; 92) 39 (36; 43) 78 (72; 84) 0.899 (0.812; 0.982)
13. Madrid 34 (32; 35) 56 (53; 59) 33 (32; 35) 56 (53; 59) 0.998 (0.935; 1.070)
14. Murcia 39 (36; 41) 71 (67; 76) 38 (35; 41) 70 (65; 75) 0.980 (0.903; 1.061)
15. Navarra 34 (31; 37) 61 (57; 66) 32 (29; 36) 58 (52; 64) 0.954 (0.854; 1.040)
16. Basque Country 40 (38; 43) 70 (66; 74) 39 (36; 42) 68 (63; 73) 0.969 (0.893; 1.045)
17. La Rioja 37 (33; 40) 65 (59; 71) 36 (32; 41) 64 (57; 71) 0.982 (0.887; 1.088)
  Age group from 50 to 64 years
1. Andalusia 301 (290; 314) 706 (679; 734) 342 (325; 360) 800 (760; 841) 1.132 (1.068; 1.200)
2. Aragón 274 (261; 287) 620 (594; 647) 309 (288; 331) 699 (653; 748) 1.128 (1.047; 1.215)
3. Asturias 322 (308; 338) 768 (736; 804) 357 (333; 383) 850 (794; 910) 1.105 (1.026; 1.190)
4. Balearic Islands 288 (272; 303) 617 (587; 646) 293 (270; 316) 627 (582; 675) 1.018 (0.938; 1.102)
5. Canary Islands 335 (320; 350) 703 (673; 732) 338 (317; 360) 709 (667; 754) 1.009 (0.942; 1.080)
6. Cantabria 296 (280; 313) 683 (651; 717) 305 (278; 333) 704 (646; 765) 1.030 (0.940; 1.124)
7. Castilla y León 267 (256; 279) 603 (579; 628) 321 (303; 342) 724 (683; 768) 1.203 (1.126; 1.286)
8. Castilla-La Mancha 255 (244; 268) 590 (566; 617) 315 (295; 336) 727 (684; 775) 1.234 (1.151; 1.325)
9. Catalonia 275 (265; 286) 628 (605; 653) 333 (316; 351) 759 (721; 799) 1.208 (1.139; 1.282)
10. Valencian Comm. 299 (287; 313) 681 (653; 712) 333 (316; 352) 758 (719; 800) 1.113 (1.044; 1.184)
11. Extremadura 281 (267; 295) 686 (655; 716) 318 (296; 342) 776 (724; 832) 1.132 (1.050; 1.222)
12. Galicia 293 (281; 306) 727 (699; 758) 307 (289; 326) 762 (718; 808) 1.048 (0.981; 1.119)
13. Madrid 258 (248; 268) 541 (520; 563) 322 (305; 340) 675 (641; 712) 1.248 (1.174; 1.327)
14. Murcia 270 (257; 284) 628 (600; 656) 299 (278; 321) 695 (649; 744) 1.107 (1.027; 1.193)
15. Navarra 261 (246; 276) 542 (515; 570) 311 (285; 340) 647 (594; 704) 1.193 (1.092; 1.308)
16. Basque Country 286 (274; 299) 645 (619; 671) 304 (285; 323) 684 (644; 728) 1.061 (0.991; 1.135)
17. La Rioja 268 (250; 287) 594 (561; 629) 317 (284; 353) 702 (635; 778) 1.182 (1.067; 1.316)
  Age group from 65 to 74 years
1. Andalusia 880 (847; 911) 1969 (1898; 2038) 970 (942; 1000) 2172 (2110; 2237) 1.102 (1.056; 1.151)
2. Aragón 727 (695; 760) 1720 (1650; 1792) 916 (870; 965) 2166 (2062; 2274) 1.259 (1.185; 1.338)
3. Asturias 772 (738; 807) 1927 (1848; 2007) 913 (866; 961) 2278 (2169; 2392) 1.181 (1.112; 1.255)
4. Balearic Islands 763 (727; 800) 1680 (1607; 1753) 794 (746; 844) 1748 (1648; 1853) 1.041 (0.972; 1.115)
5. Canary Islands 902 (865; 939) 1845 (1773; 1918) 948 (906; 991) 1938 (1855; 2024) 1.050 (0.994; 1.110)
6. Cantabria 719 (682; 759) 1791 (1709; 1878) 803 (746; 863) 1999 (1866; 2137) 1.116 (1.032; 1.206)
7. Castilla y León 691 (664; 720) 1615 (1554; 1679) 884 (848; 920) 2065 (1986; 2146) 1.280 (1.215; 1.347)
8. Castilla-La Mancha 725 (695; 757) 1653 (1588; 1722) 1020 (975; 1067) 2325 (2227; 2427) 1.408 (1.331; 1.489)
9. Catalonia 711 (685; 737) 1677 (1618; 1736) 901 (874; 930) 2125 (2063; 2190) 1.268 (1.214; 1.325)
10. Valencian Comm. 796 (766; 826) 1804 (1738; 1869) 882 (853; 913) 1999 (1934; 2065) 1.108 (1.058; 1.160)
11. Extremadura 790 (755; 827) 1989 (1907; 2073) 950 (898; 1004) 2391 (2269; 2518) 1.201 (1.128; 1.280)
12. Galicia 732 (704; 761) 1802 (1735; 1870) 750 (721; 781) 1846 (1776; 1919) 1.025 (0.974; 1.078)
13. Madrid 650 (626; 674) 1484 (1430; 1539) 928 (899; 959) 2119 (2054; 2187) 1.428 (1.365; 1.495)
14. Murcia 784 (748; 820) 1752 (1676; 1826) 869 (822; 918) 1942 (1842; 2045) 1.108 (1.040; 1.182)
15. Navarra 651 (616; 687) 1544 (1472; 1619) 743 (688; 801) 1763 (1641; 1891) 1.142 (1.054; 1.238)
16. Basque Country 672 (645; 700) 1670 (1606; 1734) 753 (720; 787) 1869 (1792; 1950) 1.120 (1.062; 1.182)
17. La Rioja 674 (632; 719) 1590 (1506; 1680) 900 (818; 990) 2124 (1943; 2319) 1.335 (1.211; 1.473)
  Age group of 75 or more years
1. Andalusia 6594 (5898; 7480) 8101 (7245; 9189) 7218 (7070; 7369) 8860 (8677; 9047) 1.093 (0.963; 1.223)
2. Aragón 6476 (5790; 7349) 8135 (7273; 9231) 7859 (7659; 8063) 9862 (9609; 10122) 1.212 (1.067; 1.359)
3. Asturias 6750 (6034; 7660) 8652 (7733; 9819) 7878 (7672; 8090) 10093 (9825; 10367) 1.166 (1.026; 1.307)
4. Balearic Islands 6080 (5434; 6901) 7229 (6460; 8206) 6232 (6035; 6435) 7410 (7173; 7654) 1.025 (0.901; 1.150)
5. Canary Islands 5707 (5103; 6475) 6957 (6220; 7893) 5763 (5608; 5923) 7022 (6832; 7218) 1.010 (0.889; 1.131)
6. Cantabria 6407 (5724; 7274) 8326 (7438; 9454) 6824 (6593; 7062) 8865 (8562; 9178) 1.065 (0.935; 1.196)
7. Castilla y León 6219 (5561; 7056) 7851 (7020; 8908) 7943 (7768; 8122) 10024 (9802; 10251) 1.280 (1.127; 1.433)
8. Castilla-La Mancha 6801 (6081; 7716) 8217 (7347; 9323) 8961 (8751; 9176) 10831 (10576; 11092) 1.319 (1.161; 1.478)
9. Catalonia 6154 (5505; 6980) 7658 (6850; 8686) 7694 (7538; 7854) 9570 (9374; 9770) 1.250 (1.101; 1.399)
10. Valencian Comm. 6204 (5550; 7038) 7499 (6708; 8507) 6823 (6676; 6973) 8250 (8072; 8432) 1.099 (0.968; 1.230)
11. Extremadura 6753 (6037; 7663) 8359 (7472; 9486) 7644 (7435; 7858) 9456 (9195; 9724) 1.131 (0.995; 1.268)
12. Galicia 6137 (5490; 6961) 7578 (6778; 8595) 6395 (6251; 6542) 7892 (7714; 8076) 1.042 (0.918; 1.166)
13. Madrid 5380 (4812; 6103) 6827 (6106; 7745) 7493 (7337; 7652) 9516 (9317; 9719) 1.394 (1.227; 1.561)
14. Murcia 6521 (5830; 7400) 7882 (7046; 8945) 7151 (6950; 7357) 8643 (8399; 8895) 1.096 (0.964; 1.229)
15. Navarra 6207 (5544; 7047) 7766 (6937; 8819) 7088 (6853; 7330) 8868 (8570; 9174) 1.142 (1.003; 1.283)
16. Basque Country 5873 (5252; 6662) 7700 (6886; 8735) 6511 (6357; 6670) 8530 (8326; 8740) 1.109 (0.977; 1.242)
17. La Rioja 6290 (5610; 7149) 8101 (7226; 9209) 7343 (7042; 7655) 9458 (9067; 9863) 1.167 (1.023; 1.316)
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